MEMA Situational Awareness Statement #3

Massachusetts Emergency Management Agency

Hurricane Irene Situational Awareness Statement (SAS) #3



Date:  August 25, 2011
Time:  11:30AM

Situation:

Irene's projected track has shifted significantly westward since yesterday; it now shows the center of Irene passing over the Outer Banks on Saturday, making landfall on western Long Island Sunday evening, and passing through central and western Massachusetts Sunday night and Monday morning as a Category 1 or 2 storm, or possibly a weak Category 3.  Irene is still several days out, however, and the projected track could potentially be off by as much as 200 miles and the projected timing by 6 to 8 hours.

Weather Forecast:

There is a risk of severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening, with associated damaging winds, rain, and hail, as well as a small chance of isolated tornado activity.

Precipitation: Rains associated with Irene may begin as early as Saturday afternoon, with the bulk of precipitation coming Saturday night through Sunday night.  As much as 6 to 12 inches of rain are possible to the left of Irene's track.  There is a significant risk of stream and river flooding left of Irene's track, but it is too early at this time to identify which basins are most at risk.


Winds: The most damaging winds will be located to the right of Irene's track.  Winds in Massachusetts are currently forecast to be Category 1 (74-95mph) or Category 2 (95-110mph) but Category 3 (110-130mph) winds are not out of the question.  If Irene takes a more westerly track and weakens as it passes over land, wind intensity will decrease.  Exact timing of the arrival of damaging winds is highly dependent on Irene's forward speed; Sunday through Sunday night are most likely, but an increase in Irene's speed could bring significant winds as early as Saturday night.  There is also a risk that Irene may spawn tornadoes Saturday night into Sunday, especially in its northeastern quadrant; if Irene takes a more westerly track, the risk of tornadoes will increase.

Coastal Flooding: The magnitude of coastal flooding will depend on Irene's exact track, speed, and intensity as well as its timing with respect to high tide.  The high tide cycles occurring on Sunday and Sunday night are of particular concern due to the astronomical high tide.  The most severe flooding will occur along south-facing coasts, but some flooding is also possible on east-facing coasts if Irene arrives near high tide.

Marine/Beaches: There is a moderate risk of rip currents today.  Risk will increase starting Friday and is expected to remain high through the beginning of next week.  Depending on Irene's forward speed, seas may begin building Saturday night and by Sunday could reach 25-35 feet near shore and 40 feet further out to sea, with the highest seas being to the right of Irene's track.

State Actions:

Beginning this morning, the State Emergency Operations Center (SEOC) in Framingham is at a Partial activation level in order to facilitate pre-landfall planning efforts.  The following functional planning groups have been established:

• Federal/MEMA Integration 
• Joint Information Center 
• Legal 
• Commodities 
• Space Assignments, Facilities, Fleet 
• Air Operations 
• Communications 
• Debris Removal 
• Emergency Management Assistance Compact 
• Energy/Utilities 
• Rapid Impact Assessment Teams 
• Urban Search and Rescue 
• WebEOC/Resource Requests 
• Evacuation and Transportation Support 
• HQ/Regional Staffing 
• Mass Fatality 
• Medical Care / Mass Care 
• Sheltering, Staffing, Supplies 
• Situational Awareness 

The below agencies and organizations are present in the SEOC.  Additional agencies and organizations may be called in to the SEOC as Irene's landfall approaches.

• American Red Cross 
• Civil Air Patrol 
• Coast Guard 
• Coastal Zone Management 
• Dept. of Agricultural Resources 
• Dept. of Conservation and Recreation 
• Dept. of Environmental Protection 
• Dept. of Fire Services 
• Division of Energy Resources 
• Dept. of Public Safety 
• Dept. of Public Utilities 
• Executive Office of Energy and Environmental Affairs 
• Executive Office of Public Safety and Security 
• FEMA Incident Management Assistance Team 
• FEMA State Liaison Officer 
• Grainger 
• MA Environmental Police 
• MA National Guard 
• MA State Police 
• MA Search and Rescue Task Force 1 
• MA Volunteer Organizations Active in Disasters 
• Mass 211 
• MassDOT 
• Massport 
• MA Dept. of Public Health 
• Massachusetts Emergency Management Agency 
• National Weather Service 
• NEDRIX 
• Operational Services Division 
• Poland Spring 
• Salvation Army 
• Secretary of State's Citizens Information Service 
• State of MA Animal Response Team 
• US Army Corps of Engineers 
• US Coast Guard 
• Verizon 

MEMA is closely monitoring Irene's progress via tools such as HURREVAC and the National Hurricane Center's website, and remains in close communication with FEMA Region 1 and other state EOCs.  MEMA is conducting a daily conference call at 12:30PM with local Emergency Management Directors, twice daily conference calls at 8:30AM and 2:15PM with NWS, and is pushing out Situational Awareness Statements at least once daily and more often as necessary.

Information for EMDs:

The Sea, Lake and Overland Surges from Hurricanes (SLOSH) model is a computerized numerical model developed by the National Weather Service (NWS) to estimate storm surge heights resulting from historical, hypothetical, or predicted hurricanes by taking into account the atmospheric pressure, size, forward speed, and track data. These parameters are used to create a model of the wind field which drives the storm surge.

The SLOSH Display Program (SDP) is software developed as a tool to aid emergency managers in visualizing storm surge vulnerability. The SLOSH model and the SDP are two different tools. The SLOSH model is used by the NHC to forecast storm surge and model storm surge vulnerability; the SDP is the software provided to emergency managers and other users to visualize the data produced by the NHC.

Graphical output from the model displays color-coded storm surge heights for a particular area in either feet above ground level (inundation) or feet above a specific reference level (NGVD29 or NAVD88). If using NAVD88 or NGVD29, users will need to know the elevation, relative to the same vertical datum, in order to properly interpret the surge elevations. A sample output of the SLOSH model for Hurricane Ike can be seen at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ssurge/images/gl2_ike2008.png.

The SDP is intended to be used by trained emergency managers, FEMA personnel, and NWS forecasters.  A username and password, which can be obtained at http://slosh.nws.noaa.gov/sloshPub/disclaim.php, is required to access the SLOSH Display Web Page and download the program.

At this time, MEMA urges local officials to monitor Irene's progress and predicted track closely, review existing emergency plans and procedures, update emergency contact lists, test communications equipment, and be prepared to participate with MEMA in more proactive planning and preparedness efforts if necessary.  MEMA also strongly encourages local officials to review their SLOSH (inundation) maps, pre-identify areas particularly at risk from storm surge flooding, and consider issuing voluntary or mandatory evacuation orders for these areas if the need arises.  Local officials are also reminded to verify their inventories of sandbags and procure additional supplies if needed.  MEMA has emergency stockpiles of sandbags available if needed.  Tropical storm force winds from Irene are forecast to arrive on Sunday, but given the possibility of Irene's forward motion increasing and damaging winds, rain, and associated flooding arriving earlier than anticipated, local officials should aim to complete pre-landfall preparations by late Saturday.

MEMA has created a WebEOC event for Irene called "2011 Hurricane Irene".  EMDs should use this event for situational awareness and conveying requests for assistance related to Hurricane Irene.  Users experiencing issues with logging on to or using WebEOC should contact their MEMA Regional office for assistance.

In order to assist local officials with preparedness and response to Irene, MEMA has made the following resources available on its website (www.mass.gov/mema) in the "Hurricane Information" section:

• Links to online tools and resources 
• Hurricane safety information 
• Sea, Lake, and Overland Surge from Hurricanes (SLOSH) maps for coastal Massachusetts counties.  

These are available as static maps in .PDF format, as well as interactive maps using Google Earth which will allow users to zoom in to neighborhoods and view projected inundations for category 1 through 4 hurricanes.  Google Earth is available free of charge at earth.google.com.

• Southern Massachusetts Hurricane Evacuation Study 
• Hurricane Evacuation Behavioral Assumptions for Massachusetts 
• The Cape Cod Emergency Traffic Plan 

For additional information and resources, visit:

• Massachusetts Emergency Management Agency at www.mass.gov/mema
• Federal Emergency Management Agency at www.fema.gov
• National Hurricane Center Website at www.nhc.noaa.gov
• National Weather Service – Taunton at www.weather.gov/boston
• National Weather Service – Albany, NY at www.weather.gov/albany
• Mass211 at www.mass211.org

The next SAS will be issued at 5:30PM today or as needed.